Pratik Bora: 2009

New Exchange Timings!!!

Posted in | at 4:02 AM

People in Exchange have not welcomed the move of SEBI to extend trading hours by 55 mins from new year.People like brokers,sub-brokers,mutual fund,foreign investors have all voiced together that Extended trading hours will put pressure on back-office operations.

The main objective of extending the trading hours on Prima facie was to capture on volumes which Indian bourses lose due to early start of SGX(Singapore Exchange Ltd).But there was ban on participatory notes to trade in Nifty futures a year back so volumes plumetted.But now this ban is uplifted.Also volume on SGX is around 6% in value terms compared with NSE's volume(daily).Also SGX starts at 6:30 am indian time so starting Indian bourses at 9:00 am won't serve the purpose!!

Also one more objective of Extending trading hours was to be in "Sync" with Global markets.Given the present timings this is possible for Asian and European Markets but even if trading hours are extended till 5:00 pm it won't be possible for to open with American Markets(open at 7:00 pm).

So objective is yet unestablished of being in resonance with all the breaking news!

But every problem has a solution and so there exists a problem(GYANN).

Solution:-We can take learnings from Chicago Mercantile Exchange(CME).CME is open for almost 23 hours for few products.The World's largest exchange,splits the day in two trading sessions.1'st Session-8:30 am till 3:15 am. 2'nd Session:-3:30 am till 8:15 am!!!!!!!!! HUUHHHH....

Now don't they(CME) face problem of Back office and Infrastructure???

Yes they "DID" but not now.As they follow a simple policy of -Settling the trades of 1'st session on that very day and trades of 2'nd session are settled on very next day!!! And slowly and simultaneously develop the Infrastructure!Tough one but start can be made.

Conclusion:-The step taken by our National Exchange on prima facie is good but then some policy should also be rolled out to address problems arising out of it.

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Opportunity knocking??

Posted in | at 2:40 AM

With Nifty shooting up 150 points and India setting mammoth total of 414 runs in one day match v/s Sri lanka,we can conquer more "New Peaks on this Flat world!!"This is how :::----

Debt ratings in India are given by private rating agencies.They are one of most sanctitiful agencies and are highly honoured.But still with recent economy fiasco,some eye brows have raised! Debt market is bigger than any other market in India with very low retail participation, so it calls for some attention.

Now suppose Government itself becomes rating agency and that too mandatory then things might turnaround.Turnarounds might be:-

1) Like faith of people(common man) in debt instruments will increase.

2)Due to mandatory Government rating , the private rating agencies will become more strict in giving ratings.Quality of ratings will improve.

3)Due to double filtering, proportion of failures will fall.

4)Government will be able to earn income out of fees and generate more employment which in turn will increase with Debt markets rise.

(Business Opportunity:-This can be used by ruling Government as revolution and will add to their quality work and help them to get another new term!!

They then can claim to Left parties also that UPA is not only about Privatisation!!)

Conclusion:-This might sound too unrealistic but if worked on then it can turn out to be good option!!

Debt market is saying instead of-"Abuse me" -----"Ab use me"!!

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Lagaan!!

Posted in | at 11:27 AM

It is always in recession the famous debate topic spurts that "Personalized profits and socialized losses is the way Capitalist class works!!" And then soon the fire spreads and this topic goes for different stage shows like it becomes GD topic for most of B-schools,on Media channels.in Newspapers etc.So i will not be touching the general thought process of presenting the points For and Against the Topic. However Being Capitalist is only best alternative if customized in particular way.

Life as Capitalist way:-

1)Municipal gardens and public places should no more be public but rather made private property.So now people throwing garbages,spitting on walls can be made to pay for this colourful act by Capitalist owner.Because when its Private then owner takes responsibility of maintaing highest level of hygiene and cleanliness.

2)Vendors should start charging for poly-ethene bags so that consumer will value poly-ethene bags and plastic waste will be under check!

Same has already been implemented by Government by ban on public smoking i.e protecting lives of Passive smokers by penalizing.

Ban on plastic bags in some circles is other example.

Mandatory PUC checks is one more example.

So keeping morals,ethics aside if we give monetary incentive or penalty then we can save on all front effortlessly!!

Parallel example is Carbon Credits where we converted biggest threat of carbon emission into biggest opportunity by changing it to business model of carbon credit!!

So Capitalism,the modern day Lagaan is the way to go!

End of Post.

And now comes the Bizzare:- Laxi and Party went for movie called "London Dreams".This is not Bizzare,the bizzare is without taking any review into account the Mr. Gentleman(Laxi) audaciously went and enjoyed the movie.Thus his Risk gave him Returns and his balance sheet as usual got balanced in terms of Risk and Return!!

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Weird Price Index(WPI)!!

Posted in | at 1:11 AM

Inflation rate in India is calculated using WPI method.WPI stands for Wholesale Price index.But in most developed nations inflation rate is calculated using CPI method.CPI stands for Consumer Price Index.

In WPI method prices of only selected items are taken into account alongwith prices of manufactured products,oil,lubricants,light etc.But in CPI method only those goods which are directly accountable for consumers' expenditure are taken into account.

Composition of WPI:-

1)Food items constitute around 15.2% in WPI.So now even though in recent times food prices have surged by 15-20% and prices of pulses by 60%, yet rise in inflation is marginal.

2)Manufactured products make for around 64% in WPI.Now as recession has just started to cooloff so prices of manufactured products have started to slide at slow pace.This same thing is getting reflected in headline inflation!!

Manufactured products include items like Base metal prices,tobacco,leather,beverages,textile,rubber,miscellaneous.

Inflation for this month is between 0 to 1%.

3)List of items taken into account for calculating WPI and their weightage in WPI index is not updated since 1999-2000.

So though consumer is directly paying for rising food prices majorly but is still finding inflation rate to be falling!!

So now Govt. is thinking of CPI or atleast to change weightage of items in WPI.

Conclusion:- Title of the post!!!

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IF Dollar Collapse continues..

Posted in | at 11:42 AM

There was "Open-outcry system" prior to Stock Exchange establishments. This system was then replaced by more organised,wider system known as "Regional Stock Exchanges". These Regional exchanges were then replaced by even more wider,organised and demutualised Exchange known as "NSE" and "BSE". If this development continues then we may soon have WWSE(World Wide Stock Exchange) for all countries together! A wild idea.
Now on same lines if the fall of Dollar continues and Indian markets continue to surge then we may sometime see the equation as

Re 1=USD 50 and not as USD 1= Re 50.

What impact this will have:-
Re 1 = USD 50:-

1)Brain Drain will be from USA to India and exams will be GRE with TOHFL(Test of Hindi as Foreign language).We will have AIT(American Institute of Technologies) and AIM(American institute of Management) instead of IIT & IIM.

2)Now passouts from AIT & AIM will vie for jobs in Indian Industies.We will come across Software industries with names like "KeshavRao-MadhavRao Consultancy Services".

3)The most acclaimed car would not be BMW but our true own Premiere Padmini Fiat.

4)Instead of Oscars, the most coveted awards will be Manikchand sponsored "Film Fare Awards".

5)No more public display of higher status by owning USA made goods but higher status will be in owning Indian made goods. Our very own Vada pav will be over Burger. "Mumbai Pav-Bhaji over McDonald".

6)Foreign author books will be replaced by Indian author books.Nokia,Samsung,Sony will be replaced by BSNL,MTNL.

7)Line will be outside USA visa office for Indian visa.People will try their luck for "Harra Patta" & not "Green Card"....

But this blog & its content comes with title "IF...."

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Harvard MBA indicator!!

Posted in | at 11:13 AM

"Harvard MBA Indicator" can be said as a tool to extrapolate the direction of stock markets.
How this indicator works??
This indicator uses the data regarding number of passouts from Harvard Business School who are opting for jobs in Finance or Finance related sectors like Equity research,Investment Banking,Asset Management,Private Equity,Consulting,Advisory etc.
Now if the number of passouts opting for jobs in Finance Profile is more than 30% of batch size then "Sell" signal is generated as NYSE is set to take a dive!!!
& if number is less than 30% then "Buy" signal is generated.
More close to 30% implies caution..
Effeciency of Indicator:-
1)40% of MBA 2008 class chose for market-sensitive jobs(This was prior to great fall).From Dec 2008 to March 2009 is history..
2)30% of MBA 2000 class chose for market-sensitive jobs.
Post 2000 was doom-gloom in market which continued till 2001/2002.
Same was the case in 1987.

Thus there goes the Adage again-"Be In when all are Out & be Out when all are In!!"

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Modern Day Law of Inertia..

Posted in | at 1:07 AM

These days law of inertia is at its peak of use and is even reaping huge benefits for those who are practicing it!!Might sound wierd but its true!

Law Of Inertia:-A body persists in its state of rest or motion unless it is acted upon by unbalanced external force.

Modern day implication of this law:-You continue doing nothing and nothing will fire against you.

i.e you do something and something will fire against you!!!!!

This view can be supported by list of facts..... and they go as follows:-
1)Barack Obama(from Promise to Power)-won nobel prize for doing....???It became debate topic!

2)Gold prices-Commodity prices are on highs and so is Yellow metal.It is being joked that Gold prices will surpass Platinum prices!Anyways our contribution in direct manner to rise in Gold price is nil but holders of Gold(major retail public)are making decent sum out of rise....i.e by doing nothing but just (continuing) subscribing to mantra of "hold-gold"!

3)Wake Up Sid!! :-This recent movie,as told to me,is all @ character named Siddharth who is doing nothing.Movie made decent earnings on Box office by making its character do nothing!!

4)Vodafone Add:- The Famous Hutch Dog was given the Job of just following the Boy wherever he goes.He did his Job religiously but still he was laid off!! Now his place is taken by "Zoo-Zoo" who do nothing other than just using Vodafone services itself.Yet "Zoo-Zoo"are still in job by doing nothing!!

5)Sensex Soars:-Government did everything to bring Sensex back on track in Dec 2008 - Feb 2009 by giving stimulus packages,changing CRR rate,Repo rate,Reverse-repo rates and all kind of these big things which most of us don't understand but Sensex did not rise.Post March Government started to prepare for elections and forgot @ stock markets and to everybodies surprise markets started to soar.Reached 17500 levels when government is doing nothing!!!!

6)Bonus Shares:- When R-Power issue had come, people subscribed to it in bulk.Some people even opened new demat accounts.They took all pains and efforts of making the money available for issue subscription.When issue opened and stock got listed....... need to say nothing... rest is all history!!They did something and got nothing!

But today R-stock holders got 1:1 bonus for doing nothing!!

7)"Hold the Drink" :- When you buy some good front-runner stock hold the stock as you "hold the drink" to make money,as some wise people say.But still some people made all kind of calculations when market breached levels of 4500 and forecasted that markets are geared to plunge.On this study they liquidated their positions also.Today markets stand at 5200 levels!!People did something and got nothing!!

On Flip side there is a camp of people which continues to hold good,front-runner stocks since last fall and are sitting on huge profits!!These people made good money by doing nothing!!

Many more examples but for now these many are ok i suppose.

Disclaimer:-I know that by writing this blog i did something as per "Modern day law of Inertia" so i am supposed to be ready for something that will fire against me!! But for your betterment i want to say that don't change the way you act(i.e continue holding or liquidating the position) by reading this blog because then you will also be at recieveing end as per "Modern Day Law of Inertia!!"

No offences meant-just enjoy.

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No Network!!

Posted in | at 1:53 PM

On Face Value:-

The Indian Telecom industry is fifth largest in world and second largest in Asia.It has around 370 million connections.The industries in play are State owned(BSNL,MTNL),Private(Reliance Commnication,Tata),Foreign invested(Bharti,Idea,Vodafone).There are many facts and figures apart from this miniscule data given which suggests that Telecomm Industry is highly promising.
Life without landline,cellphones and internet will go for toss.This suggests the power of telecom industry in brief.

Bare Facts:-

1)Bharti-MTN deal was called off because of problems of :-a) Dual listing and

b)Rupee convertibility;

2)BSNL & MTNL are vying for Kuwait based telecom major-Zain since quarters;

3)Per second billing started by Tata Doccomo and in some circles by Aircel have sent alarming signals to other major opeartors.

4)TRAI has expresses its views for per second billing also now.

5)3G war i.e spectrum war has set in to get more air space.

6)Reliance Communication is planning flat 50 paise for all calls and messages to suppress other majors.

These factors have led to Tanking of Indian Telecom industry.

Now new phrase for Indian telecom industry is "Saare Zameen Par" and biggest domestic industry is taking biggest blow.
Though in this process customer is no doubtedly King but Telecom industry is losing its Network in short run!!

Views of analysts :- time to start accumulating Telecom stocks..

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Unmatched Power!!!

Posted in | at 12:25 PM

Facts:-
1)In April 2006, RPL's share were first offered to public.
2)Reliance Industries Ltd. raises somewhere around 3800 crore by selling its stake in RPL in November 2007.
3)Reliance Power raises around 10,000 crore via IPO in January 2008.
4)Reliance Communication planning to raise funds via private placement.
5)In June 2009,Reliance launches NFO-Reliance Infra Fund which got cleared from shelf in no time.

Movement in Market:-
1)Post RPL listing in 2006 market started to crack and was down about 25% in month time!!!
2)In January 2008 market tops and thereafter the great Free Fall of Market starts!!Before this free fall RIL had selled its some stake in RPL & also had succesfully issued IPO of R-power.

Inferences:-
This could be mere co-incidence that just after Reliance raises money from markets they start to crack.
But there might be substance/little doubt in view that Reliance times the market!!
So there goes one more indicator for forecasting the market movement and its-
Track the Reliance moves!!

Enjoy----No offences meant.

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Enjoy!!

Posted in | at 5:16 AM

Regression equation is given as y= a + b1*x1 +b2*x2 - b3*x3 where "y" is dependent variable and "a","b1","b2","b3" are all constants.As value of variables "x1" and "x2" increase so will value of "y" and as value of "x3" will increase value of "y" will decrease."a" is constant such that irrespective of other factors value of "y" will be atleast "a".
Now as the ground is ready we will move to most interesting application of Regression Equation.It explains "rise by night" Stock Price:-

STEP 1-Operator(punter)makes stock known to common people via his nexus with brokers which is known as "TIP".This is "x1" of our equation and weight assigned to it is low which is "b1".

STEP 2-Some good technical and fundamental analysts then use all kind of technical and fundamental jargons on reputed news channels and make people realize that this very stock is future of market!!! This is "x2" of our equation and weight assigned to it is high which is "b2".This is because after this interview of analyst this stock becomes discussion topic of "mother and grandmothers" also!!Then slowly euphoria starts buliding and even "Paan waala" buys that stock and its price soars!This is time when operator,analysts offload their holdings in stock and common man makes "wise" decision of buying it!!

STEP 3-The constant "a" is symbolized by news channel editors who continuously "bombard" its "audience" with that "promising" stock and make it rise.

Now owing to all these Efforts of operators,analyst and editors the value of our dependent variable i.e "y" which is price of stock soars!!

And now coming to lag variable i.e "x3".This symbolizes interest of common man.As the stock flows from operator and analysts to common man, its price starts to plunge!!Thus as value of "x3" increase the value of "y" i.e price of stock starts to plunge!!

So the common wisdom is to exit the stock when it is with all people under the sun.

Live examples of Regression equation are stocks like Akruti city,PSTL and many more gone and many more yet to come!!

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When in wrong line!!

Posted in | at 11:13 AM

Just imagine what would happen if Politicians would enter Stock Market!!:-
Obama:-Only people from America can trade,No Outsider allowed!
Bush:-War is on & kill those stocks which will go for lower curcuits!
(Didi):-No Nano and IPO allowed!
Former/"Farmer" Finance minister:-Waive off the losses of all traders!!
Former Home(Homely) Minister:-He will bring new rule of having New Dress in every event of emergency!!
Left:-No privatisation allowed,all companies should list on market and go public completely(compl.).For them long term will be one day.
Chief Minsiters:-There job will be to come out on street on every fall and assure on recovery.
Laluji:-He will definitely take stock markets to new high!!
Rahulji:-Only those IPO's whose management has young people on its board will be allowed to list!!
Health minister(former):-Alcohol stocks delisted!! People on board should be non-smokers.
Minister for Women's right:-33% of trades in market should be executed by women only!!

Again don't know the crux of blog and so it goes with the pic of this post!!

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Kuch bhi!!!!!!

Posted in | at 9:34 AM

No rains again!!Read that this time it will be worst rainfall since '89.Govt. in centre is worried??
Yes "??" are used because this is again opportunity for them to waive off loans of farmers and come to power again after this 5 year tenure!!Meanwhile this is creating a whole new business venture for insurance companies to enter real India i.e Bharat i.e village population of farmers to sell insurance policy and give reassurance to them.Meterological department has said that Depression in Bay of Bangal is inversely related to Depression of Farmers in India.This means that if Depression in Bay of Bengal increases we will have good rainfall and farmers will have low depression but the situation is totally reverse as of now Farmers are in complete depression.Thus we need depression(in bay of bengal)!!There is talk @ Indian Premiere League but what @ Indain Poverty League(IPL)??
IPL(cricket wala)came n gone;
Swine Flue came n gone;
Tata Docomo scheme came n gone:
but monsoon pain came , coming n is here!!!
As usual just don't know what this write up is all about??

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Mithya??

Posted in | at 12:13 PM

Don't know what i am writing after a long,tiring day.Actually this piece is an "inspiration"(oxymoron) from a budding,undercover writer of thoughts!! Sometimes you will feel like laughing at these thoughts & sometimes they make you realize that how big messages they convey.I know its now becoming like "beating around the bush" so coming straight to lines-
"Jab hum ghar se nikle
hamare bhi kuch armaan the
raste me kahin khadde kahin kabristaan the.
Kabristaan me jaa pahunche hum
hadiyoon se takra gaye hum
unke ye bayaan the:-
Are bhai jara dekh ke chalo hum bhi kabhi insaan the!!"
Explanation of these lines as by writer of these lines himself in very brief:-
You will choose wrong/right path many times in life and will have nobody from your known with you.Be ready then to stand by it all alone.You will then meet the people already there & finally will learn form there experiences.Always be ready to give,have no grudges & move on...

Blog content goes with its pic?

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No more sleeping Tiger?

Posted in | at 11:12 PM

It was 5'o clock in morning & was not Good morning for me but Good night.But then tomorrow Toll @ Bandra - Worli Sea link was goin to start so we just set out to explore it.

It was no less than eye opener,Some say it is New York in Mumbai,Some say it is our one step close to superpower. But these all loud words are alien to me.

What all i understood is:-

1) It will be saving Rs.250 crore of petrol every year.

2)Prior to its construction it took 1 to 1n half a hour to reach Worli from Bandra.Now it takes flat 7 mins.

3)You will be avoiding 27 signals by taking over this Sea link.

n many more to come....

Now thats sparkling & eyeopener...

So now many have even started to speculate that India is now no more a sleeping Tiger!!!

But the tiger has now came out of its Den!

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That Day!!

Posted in | at 11:02 AM

It was early morning, i was @ Parla Station when heavy rains started suddenly(weather was clear prior to rains so possibility of Rain was highly dim).
I was not carrying college id card so could not go to college from station..college is closer than hostel from station.
I was not carrying Umbrella so could not walk much distance from station to hire a rick..
That day there was no rick outside station also.
Was having really less money & was with debit card but no ATM nearby or good restaraunt to swipe it.
& then my stay @ station will be describing later but here i have something to say which is:-
output of this scenario :- Was at parla station for almost whole day...but learned many things @ station.
Learnings:- 1)Don't trust Mumbai weather atleast from june to september.
2)Carry some extra money.
3)Do carry Multimedia,fully charged cell with head set though there are many things to learn around but still as a break.
4)Be ready to absorb things.

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Is that True????

Posted in | at 11:40 PM

This is for 1'st time that i am staying in Mumbai for so long time....
Actually very nice place(nice place coz nobody has time to think wat kind of place it is!!!!)
Today was my 1'st "SUNDAY STAY" (as they call it here).So full on plan to explore new areas wid new Quality friends.It was 28'th June & famous,violent monsoon showed up its true face & our plan just blew offffff....
But even more strange thing i came across & which when given a deep thought actually made me Go Mad coz it provogued me to think that "IS THAT TRUE???"

& THAT STRANGE THING IS ONE OF MY FRIEND HERE GAVE ME VERY PRACTICAL & CLOSE TO TRUE GYANNNN THAT

"MUMBAI KI BARISH & LADKIYA(ALL OVER WORLD) HAVE ONE THING COMMON & THAT IS -
THEY BOTH ARE HIGHLY UNPREDICTABLE , VERY PLEASANT , VERY VIOLENT AT TIMES , & COME WITHOUT GUARANTEE & WARRANTY.."

HARD TO ABSORB BUT INDEED TRUE??

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Master Piece on Shit!!!!!!

Posted in | at 11:19 PM

As any usual morning got up at around 6/7 am after goin to bed at around 2/3am...usually i don't go to bed so very late night(actually 2/3am is early morning) but datz how its now here in my hostel life....
Got up & went to complete daily chores.... Sometimes it is not good practice to touch some sensitive topics but then they take their toll if not touched upon.....
The "Loo" many a times presents really a very painful site to Sensory organsss... & here is a "Master Piece On Shit" i came across..so here it goes...
Mystery Crapper Strikes Again(& Again...& Again..)
He comes & dumps
But strangely never uses the Flushing Pumps!!!!!
He might strike day or night.....
So beware my friends or you might catch a fright!!
Since memory fails the Mystery Crapper..
this is just a last reminder-
"DUDE even if u r in a MAD RUSH
Don't ever FORGET TO FLUSH!!!!"
If thou not heed to this advice
Soon we will install "LOO SPIES"!!!
And when the Mystery is revealed
God help u my friend for your ASS will be Peeled!!!!

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Mumbai Rains

Posted in | at 10:48 AM

Finally Monsoon has arrived & hassles of stockists(both equity & agriculturalist)
have came to end....

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