Lagaan!!


It is always in recession the famous debate topic spurts that "Personalized profits and socialized losses is the way Capitalist class works!!" And then soon the fire spreads and this topic goes for different stage shows like it becomes GD topic for most of B-schools,on Media channels.in Newspapers etc.So i will not be touching the general thought process of presenting the points For and Against the Topic. However Being Capitalist is only best alternative if customized in particular way.

Life as Capitalist way:-

1)Municipal gardens and public places should no more be public but rather made private property.So now people throwing garbages,spitting on walls can be made to pay for this colourful act by Capitalist owner.Because when its Private then owner takes responsibility of maintaing highest level of hygiene and cleanliness.
2)Vendors should start charging for poly-ethene bags so that consumer will value poly-ethene bags and plastic waste will be under check!
Same has already been implemented by Government by ban on public smoking i.e protecting lives of Passive smokers by penalizing.
Ban on plastic bags in some circles is other example.
Mandatory PUC checks is one more example.
So keeping morals,ethics aside if we give monetary incentive or penalty then we can save on all front effortlessly!!

Parallel example is Carbon Credits where we converted biggest threat of carbon emission into biggest opportunity by changing it to business model of carbon credit!!
So Capitalism,the modern day Lagaan is the way to go!
End of Post.

And now comes the Bizzare:- Laxi and Party went for movie called "London Dreams".This is not Bizzare,the bizzare is without taking any review into account the Mr. Gentleman(Laxi) audaciously went and enjoyed the movie.Thus his Risk gave him Returns and his balance sheet as usual got balanced in terms of Risk and Return!!

  • Digg
  • Del.icio.us
  • StumbleUpon
  • Reddit
  • Twitter
  • RSS

Weird Price Index(WPI)!!


Inflation rate in India is calculated using WPI method.WPI stands for Wholesale Price index.But in most developed nations inflation rate is calculated using CPI method.CPI stands for Consumer Price Index.
In WPI method prices of only selected items are taken into account alongwith prices of manufactured products,oil,lubricants,light etc.But in CPI method only those goods which are directly accountable for consumers' expenditure are taken into account.

Composition of WPI:-
1)Food items constitute around 15.2% in WPI.So now even though in recent times food prices have surged by 15-20% and prices of pulses by 60%, yet rise in inflation is marginal.
2)Manufactured products make for around 64% in WPI.Now as recession has just started to cooloff so prices of manufactured products have started to slide at slow pace.This same thing is getting reflected in headline inflation!!
Manufactured products include items like Base metal prices,tobacco,leather,beverages,textile,rubber,miscellaneous.
Inflation for this month is between 0 to 1%.
3)List of items taken into account for calculating WPI and their weightage in WPI index is not updated since 1999-2000.

So though consumer is directly paying for rising food prices majorly but is still finding inflation rate to be falling!!
So now Govt. is thinking of CPI or atleast to change weightage of items in WPI.
Conclusion:- Title of the post!!!

  • Digg
  • Del.icio.us
  • StumbleUpon
  • Reddit
  • Twitter
  • RSS

IF Dollar Collapse continues..


There was "Open-outcry system" prior to Stock Exchange establishments. This system was then replaced by more organised,wider system known as "Regional Stock Exchanges". These Regional exchanges were then replaced by even more wider,organised and demutualised Exchange known as "NSE" and "BSE". If this development continues then we may soon have WWSE(World Wide Stock Exchange) for all countries together! A wild idea.
Now on same lines if the fall of Dollar continues and Indian markets continue to surge then we may sometime see the equation as
Re 1=USD 50 and not as USD 1= Re 50.
What impact this will have:-
Re 1 = USD 50:-

1)Brain Drain will be from USA to India and exams will be GRE with TOHFL(Test of Hindi as Foreign language).We will have AIT(American Institute of Technologies) and AIM(American institute of Management) instead of IIT & IIM.

2)Now passouts from AIT & AIM will vie for jobs in Indian Industies.We will come across Software industries with names like "KeshavRao-MadhavRao Consultancy Services".

3)The most acclaimed car would not be BMW but our true own Premiere Padmini Fiat.

4)Instead of Oscars, the most coveted awards will be Manikchand sponsored "Film Fare Awards".

5)No more public display of higher status by owning USA made goods but higher status will be in owning Indian made goods. Our very own Vada pav will be over Burger. "Mumbai Pav-Bhaji over McDonald".

6)Foreign author books will be replaced by Indian author books.Nokia,Samsung,Sony will be replaced by BSNL,MTNL.

7)Line will be outside USA visa office for Indian visa.People will try their luck for "Harra Patta" & not "Green Card"....
But this blog & its content comes with title "IF...."

  • Digg
  • Del.icio.us
  • StumbleUpon
  • Reddit
  • Twitter
  • RSS

Harvard MBA indicator!!


"Harvard MBA Indicator" can be said as a tool to extrapolate the direction of stock markets.
How this indicator works??
This indicator uses the data regarding number of passouts from Harvard Business School who are opting for jobs in Finance or Finance related sectors like Equity research,Investment Banking,Asset Management,Private Equity,Consulting,Advisory etc.
Now if the number of passouts opting for jobs in Finance Profile is more than 30% of batch size then "Sell" signal is generated as NYSE is set to take a dive!!!
& if number is less than 30% then "Buy" signal is generated.
More close to 30% implies caution..
Effeciency of Indicator:-
1)40% of MBA 2008 class chose for market-sensitive jobs(This was prior to great fall).From Dec 2008 to March 2009 is history..
2)30% of MBA 2000 class chose for market-sensitive jobs.
Post 2000 was doom-gloom in market which continued till 2001/2002.
Same was the case in 1987.

Thus there goes the Adage again-"Be In when all are Out & be Out when all are In!!"

  • Digg
  • Del.icio.us
  • StumbleUpon
  • Reddit
  • Twitter
  • RSS

Modern Day Law of Inertia..


These days law of inertia is at its peak of use and is even reaping huge benefits for those who are practicing it!!Might sound wierd but its true!
Law Of Inertia:-A body persists in its state of rest or motion unless it is acted upon by unbalanced external force.

Modern day implication of this law:-You continue doing nothing and nothing will fire against you.
i.e you do something and something will fire against you!!!!!
This view can be supported by list of facts..... and they go as follows:-
1)Barack Obama(from Promise to Power)-won nobel prize for doing....???It became debate topic!

2)Gold prices-Commodity prices are on highs and so is Yellow metal.It is being joked that Gold prices will surpass Platinum prices!Anyways our contribution in direct manner to rise in Gold price is nil but holders of Gold(major retail public)are making decent sum out of rise....i.e by doing nothing but just (continuing) subscribing to mantra of "hold-gold"!

3)Wake Up Sid!! :-This recent movie,as told to me,is all @ character named Siddharth who is doing nothing.Movie made decent earnings on Box office by making its character do nothing!!

4)Vodafone Add:- The Famous Hutch Dog was given the Job of just following the Boy wherever he goes.He did his Job religiously but still he was laid off!! Now his place is taken by "Zoo-Zoo" who do nothing other than just using Vodafone services itself.Yet "Zoo-Zoo"are still in job by doing nothing!!

5)Sensex Soars:-Government did everything to bring Sensex back on track in Dec 2008 - Feb 2009 by giving stimulus packages,changing CRR rate,Repo rate,Reverse-repo rates and all kind of these big things which most of us don't understand but Sensex did not rise.Post March Government started to prepare for elections and forgot @ stock markets and to everybodies surprise markets started to soar.Reached 17500 levels when government is doing nothing!!!!

6)Bonus Shares:- When R-Power issue had come, people subscribed to it in bulk.Some people even opened new demat accounts.They took all pains and efforts of making the money available for issue subscription.When issue opened and stock got listed....... need to say nothing... rest is all history!!They did something and got nothing!

But today R-stock holders got 1:1 bonus for doing nothing!!

7)"Hold the Drink" :- When you buy some good front-runner stock hold the stock as you "hold the drink" to make money,as some wise people say.But still some people made all kind of calculations when market breached levels of 4500 and forecasted that markets are geared to plunge.On this study they liquidated their positions also.Today markets stand at 5200 levels!!People did something and got nothing!!

On Flip side there is a camp of people which continues to hold good,front-runner stocks since last fall and are sitting on huge profits!!These people made good money by doing nothing!!

Many more examples but for now these many are ok i suppose.

Disclaimer:-I know that by writing this blog i did something as per "Modern day law of Inertia" so i am supposed to be ready for something that will fire against me!! But for your betterment i want to say that don't change the way you act(i.e continue holding or liquidating the position) by reading this blog because then you will also be at recieveing end as per "Modern Day Law of Inertia!!"

No offences meant-just enjoy.

  • Digg
  • Del.icio.us
  • StumbleUpon
  • Reddit
  • Twitter
  • RSS

No Network!!


On Face Value:-

The Indian Telecom industry is fifth largest in world and second largest in Asia.It has around 370 million connections.The industries in play are State owned(BSNL,MTNL),Private(Reliance Commnication,Tata),Foreign invested(Bharti,Idea,Vodafone).There are many facts and figures apart from this miniscule data given which suggests that Telecomm Industry is highly promising.
Life without landline,cellphones and internet will go for toss.This suggests the power of telecom industry in brief.
Bare Facts:-
1)Bharti-MTN deal was called off because of problems of :-a) Dual listing and
b)Rupee convertibility;
2)BSNL & MTNL are vying for Kuwait based telecom major-Zain since quarters;
3)Per second billing started by Tata Doccomo and in some circles by Aircel have sent alarming signals to other major opeartors.
4)TRAI has expresses its views for per second billing also now.
5)3G war i.e spectrum war has set in to get more air space.
6)Reliance Communication is planning flat 50 paise for all calls and messages to suppress other majors.
These factors have led to Tanking of Indian Telecom industry.
Now new phrase for Indian telecom industry is "Saare Zameen Par" and biggest domestic industry is taking biggest blow.
Though in this process customer is no doubtedly King but Telecom industry is losing its Network in short run!!
Views of analysts :- time to start accumulating Telecom stocks..


  • Digg
  • Del.icio.us
  • StumbleUpon
  • Reddit
  • Twitter
  • RSS

Unmatched Power!!!


Facts:-
1)In April 2006, RPL's share were first offered to public.
2)Reliance Industries Ltd. raises somewhere around 3800 crore by selling its stake in RPL in November 2007.
3)Reliance Power raises around 10,000 crore via IPO in January 2008.
4)Reliance Communication planning to raise funds via private placement.
5)In June 2009,Reliance launches NFO-Reliance Infra Fund which got cleared from shelf in no time.

Movement in Market:-
1)Post RPL listing in 2006 market started to crack and was down about 25% in month time!!!
2)In January 2008 market tops and thereafter the great Free Fall of Market starts!!Before this free fall RIL had selled its some stake in RPL & also had succesfully issued IPO of R-power.

Inferences:-
This could be mere co-incidence that just after Reliance raises money from markets they start to crack.
But there might be substance/little doubt in view that Reliance times the market!!
So there goes one more indicator for forecasting the market movement and its-
Track the Reliance moves!!

Enjoy----No offences meant.

  • Digg
  • Del.icio.us
  • StumbleUpon
  • Reddit
  • Twitter
  • RSS